future of Bvooirlvn • ^K 



u 




Book 



c^/g6a 



THE FUTURE OF BROOKLYN. 



THE CITY'S PROMISED GROWTH AND INCREASE, 
WITH COMMENTS ON THE BUILDING STA- 
TISTICS FOR THE YEAR 1888. 



MESSAGE 

OF THE 

HON. ALFRED C. CHAPIN, 

MAYOR. 

DECEMBER 13, 1888. 



U\'^' 



In ExcHaag* 
N. T. P. L. 



D. of U. 



Mayor's Office, ' "i 

City Hall, Brooklyn, \ 

December 1:3, 1888 ) 

To the Honorable, the Common Council : 
Gentlemen : 
In this message 1 shall attempt a general state- 
ment of the condition of the city, and of its build- 
ing operations. For the purpose of broadly consid- 
ering the city's present condition and standiig 
among similar communities, the returns of the re- 
cent Presidential election furnish valuable data. 
Presidential elections call out a fall vote, and thus 
afford an indication of the relative growth of the 
different cities of the country. The following table 
is believed to correctly state the total number of 
votes cast in the four leading cities for President at 
the recent election : 

Total vote cast in 1888. 

New York 270,194 

Philadelphia 205,747 

Brooklyn 148,868 

Chicago 1-23,475 

In 1880 the vote of these several cities in the 
Presidential election bore the following proportion 
to the population ^s shown by the census of the 
same year : 



Number of population to each voter in 1880 : 

New York 5.87. 

Philadelphia 4.92. 

Brooklyn 5.29. 

Chicago 6.06. 

The following table contains the population of 
each city in 1880, and the apparent population at 
present, basing the estimate upon the vote of this 
year, and assuming the ratio of population to the 
numbers of voters to remain the same as in 1880 : 

Population in 1880. Apparent population in 1888. 

New York. 1,206,299. 1,585,529. 

Philadelphia, 847,170. 1,014,332. 

Brooklyn, 566,663. 782,221. 

Chicago, 503,185. 748,268. 

The method of reaching this conclusion cannot 
be called unduly favorable to our city. The differ- 
ence in the ratio existing between the population 
and the voters in 1880 in Chicago and in Brooklyn 
would seem to indicate either that Chicago pos- 
sessed an unusually large unnaturalized population, 
or else that it did not poll its full vote. If the un- 
naturalized population of our own city is larger than 
it was in 1880, the above estimate may be too 
small. If the increase of population since 1880 has 
been one that brought with it a larger proportion of 
women and children than the increase before 1880, 
the above estimate is too sm^ll. Whether either 



of these possible modifications should be given 
serious consideration is a matter of conjecture upon 
which some light may be thrown by what will be 
set forth in this communication. 

The twenty-six wards now comprising the city of 
Brooklyn, contained in 1880 a population of 
580,313 ; if, therefore, their present population as 
above estimated is 782,221, there has been an in- 
crease in eight years of 201,903, or an aver- 
age annual gain for each of those years of 
25,237. But the population in 1870 was 396,099, 
and in 1875, as enumerated by the State Census, 
it was 484,616, showing a gain for the five years of 
87,518, or an average annually of 17,500. Between 
1875 and 1880 it rose to 566,663, the total gain for 
the five years being 82,047, the average annual gain 
being 16,400. It should, therefore, first be noticed 
that the rate of increase of the last decade was 
more rapid during its first half than during its 
closing half. The present decade began in a period 
of more moderate growth than that of some years 
previous. We may, I think, safely assume that the 
falling off in the gain between 1875 and 1880 was 
largely due to the opening of the system of elevated 
roads in New York City in 1878. Making all 
necessary allowance for the increase due to the 
Twenty-sixth Ward, which was not a part of the 
city in 1880, it is still impossible to believe that the 
average annual gain of 16,400 which prevailed from 
1875 to 1880 could have been abruptly changed to 
the average annual gain of 25,237 which has pre- 



vailed from 1880 to the present time. We must, 
then, assume that during the years since 1880 the 
rate of growth of the city has advanced quite 
materially ; and that the average increase of the 
first tliree or four years of the present decade may 
not have been much in excess of the average in- 
crease of the five years from 1875 to 1880. A suffi- 
cient cause for the change of the rate of growth is 
furnished in the opening of the Bridge in 1883. 

A further promoting cause is found in the opening 
of the Brooklyn Elevated Kail way in 1885. We 
must, therefore, assume the average annual gain 
for the past eight years (of 25,237) to be greater 
than the average gain of the three or four years 
following 1880. If so, it is obvious that the gains 
for the present year and for the years immediately 
preceding must have been greater than 25,000. 
That the two causes suggested contributed to 
change the rate of growth is not likely to be ques- 
tioned by any one. But they are only the accom- 
paniments of a broader and more persistent cause, 
which is the fundamental reason of the existence of 
the bridge and of our present sj'stem of rapid tran- 
sit. This larger cause is a general change in the 
relation between New York and Brooklyn, gradu- 
ally manifesting itself as a necessary result of the 
development of the whole metropolitan community 
surrounding the port of New York. The first two 
causes, therefore, though permanent, were auxiliary 
and specific. The last is a general, continuous 
condition, whose force seems unlikely to decline, 



but more likely to augment from year to year. The 
first two causes, aUo, may be said to have a fixed 
or, at all events, an ascertainable maximum infiu- 
euce, based upon their respective capacity to trans- 
port passengers. They are merely methods of 
transit. Their capacity may in time be exhausted. 
In such case they may be supplemented ; new 
bridges can be built, and doubtless will 
be ; newer elevated railroads have been built 
and opened for business since the construc- 
tion of the one already mentioned. More elevated 
railroads are to be built. In addition to the Brook- 
lyn Elevated Railroad Company, already named, 
now operating six and three-fourths miles of rail- 
road, the Kings County Elevated Railroad Com- 
pany is operating five and one-half miles of rail- 
road, and the Union Elevated R'lilroad Company is 
operating four and three-fifths miles, forming to- 
gether a system of nearly seventeen miles, which 
promises to increase its capacity as well as its mile- 
age. Construction is still progressing upon these 
lines, and it is reported that at the close of the year 
1-589, or earlier, there will be twenty-five miles of 
elevated railroad in operation in the city. 

These features of the city's condition call at- 
tention to the fact that we have reached a period of 
development, at which it is our duty to provide 
clearly and understandingly for the needs of a far 
greater population than that now included within 
our limits. 

In earlier days Americans did much empty 



8 

boasting and made many glorious predictions. 
At the same time, so far as material preparations 
are concerned, they could do little for those coming 
after them. The art of living had not then been 
studied as it since has been. Sanitary science can 
hardly be said to have been in its infancy, for in 
this country it seemed to have no existence what- 
ever. In the establishing of enduring and funda- 
mental principles of government, and in the field 
of law much w^as done for us and for our posterity 
by the men of previous generations, but it was 
necessar}^ that there should be a gradual education 
of the business sense of the country before men 
could appreciate the nature and import of the prob- 
lems now presented in the growth of cities. It was 
necessary that a more leisurely aspect should come 
over life ; that comfort and health should be 
more highly prized. The more purely intellectual 
side of our ancestors' work was well done ; but the 
needs of the by no means distant future, the inherit- 
ances which our successors should receive from us, 
are of a different description. Pavements, sewers, 
sufficient water supply, parks, schools, public build- 
ings, an enlarged application of the results at- 
tained in sanitary science, and the solid work of 
masonry are the inheritances we should transmit, 
rather than far reaching adjudications, such as that 
of the Dartmouth College case, or comprehensive 
enactments, such as the ordinance establishing 
the Northwest Territory. Naturally, the great- 
est and most pressing need will arise here at 



the centre of the gi-eatest population. How great 
that need id ay be, or how great a population may 
congregate within our area or upon the borders of 
the bay of New York, we cannot indeed actually 
estimate, but to some extent we can forecast it. 
Such forecasts are not useless. In his message of 
December, 1861, President Lincoln said : " There 
are already among us those who, if the Union be 
preserved, will live to see it contain two hundred 
apd fifty millions." Such a vision of the future, at 
a time of extreme trial, seemed to him neither vain 
nor fanciful. Its utterance was evidence that he 
possessed the sort of political imagination which a 
statesman should possess if he is to discern the 
drift of public thought, or to picture the future 
material condition of his country. When compared 
with other estimates, his outlook was not extrava- 
gant, though it may not be realized. Its concern 
for us is direct and unavoidable. For the course of 
history, in our own land and abroad, makes it clear 
that the population about the port of New York is 
to hold a place of high importance in the nation, 
both numerical and otherwise. 

The State of New York passed to the first place 
in population in the nation in lb20. Since that 
day the populatiou of the Union, of the State of 
New York, and the combined population of the 
cities of New York and Brooklyn, at each decade 
from 1820 to 1880, and the percentage of increase 
in each decade, have been as follows : 



10 





Population 


02 p 


Population 




Population 




Years. 


of New 


Cd m 


of the 


CS (U 


of the 


d o) 


York and 




State of 


-S 


United 


"S 




Brooklj'n. 




New York. 


>5S. 


States. 


5^ 


1820 


130,881 




l,37i,111 




9,633,822 




1830 


215,019 


64.3 


1,918,608 


39.8 


12,866.020 


32.51 


1840 


Wi 943 


62.2 


2,428,926 


26.5 


17,0G9 453 


33.52 


1850 


612,385 


75.5 


3,097,394 


27.5 


23,191,876 


33.83 


1860 


1,072,312 


75.1 


3,880.735 


25 2 


31 443,321 


35.11 


1870 


1,338,391 


24. S 


4,382,759 


12.9 


38,558,371 


22.65 


1880 


1,772,962 


32.4 


5,082,s71 


15.9 


50.15-5.783 


30.08 



Thus the combined population of New York aiid 
Brooklyn has at all times since 1830 grown at a 
rate much more rapid than that of the growth of the 
State of New York ; the rate of growth of the two 
cities has at all times exceeded the rate of growth 
of the population of the whole Union, although the 
rate of growth of the population of the State of 
New York has not kept pace with that of the pop- 
ulation of the United States since 1830. But for 
the growth of the two cities, the State would, be- 
fore this time, have ceased to hold the first place. 
The degree to which the population of the two 
cities has gained upon that of the State in the 
whole period, is quite notable. Their proportion 
of the population of the State in 1820 
was less than one-tenth ; while in 1880 more 
than one-third of the population of the State lived 
in Brooklyn and New York. On the other hand, 
in 1820, the State of New York included more 
than one-eighth of the population of the whole 
Union ; while iu 1880 it embraced a little less than 
one-tenth of that population. At present, adopt- 



11 

ing the estimates already giveu, based upon the 
Presidential vote for this year, New York and 
Brooklyn include nearly, if not quite, two-fifths of 
the population of the whole State. 

Without adopting Lincoln's prediction, we need 
only look forward to a time when the country may 
contain one hundred and fift}^ million people. 
Even then, the density of its population will be 
much less than that of older countries or of some 
States of the Union. If the population of the State 
of New York failed to hold its present relation, and 
fell off until it numbered but eight per cent, or 
about one-twi^lfth of the population of the Union, 
it would still contain more than twelve millions 
of people, of which a population surpassing 
one-half might be found in or near these two 
cities. As the two cities grow, apparently an 
increasiug proportion of that growth naust come 
to Brooklyn. The mere question of area goes far 
to determine such a result. Each mile of depart- 
ure from the New York City Hall emphasizes the 
inequality in the quantity of residence area lying 
respectively upon Manhattan Island and within our 
limits. It is four miles from the New York 
City Hall to Sixtieth street; and the capacity of 
the area below that street for purposes of 
residence may be said to be well nigh exhausted. 
The encroachments of business below that division 
line seem likely to diminish its capacity to furnish 
homes nearly as rapidly as improvements in build- 
ing methods may augment such capacity. Of the 



12 

twenty-four Assembly Districts in the City of New 
York, nineteen — to wit, one to eighteen inclusive, 
and the twentieth — lie wholly below Fifty-ninth 
street. In these nineteen districts the increase of 
registration in 1888 over that of 1884 is 13,641. 
The remaining five districts lie almost wholly above 
Fifty-ninth street ; and in them the increase is 
32,110. Apparently more than seventy per cent, 
of the growth of New York during the past four 
years has been north of Fifty-ninth street. Not 
only must this comparatively fixed condition of 
New York below Fifty-ninth street remain or be- 
come more and more marked, but the line of divis- 
ion between the growing and the fixed parts of the 
city must rapidly shift from Fifty-ninth street to 
One Hundred and Tenth street. For of the area 
between Fifty-ninth street and One Hundred and 
Tenth street a substantial part is devoted to Cen- 
tral Park, and is unavailable for residences. 
Furthermore, the presence of Central Park causes 
land east and west of it to be much sought after, 
and to command high prices. That part of New 
York, therefore, which lies between Fifty-ninth 
street and One Hundred and Tenth street is to be 
largely taken by people whose means are abundant, 
and of the space not already occupied, but a small 
part will be left for the sort of population from 
which Brooklyn draws its chief and characteristic 
growth. 

How far existing conditions may be disturbed by 
new rheans of transit or by new works of life in 



13 

New York City, no one can now tell. At present, 
the broad fact is, that the whole area of Brooklyn 
(excepting only the more remote parts of the 
Twenty-sixth Ward, the former town of New Lots) 
is nearer in distance to the New York City Hall 
than that part of New York City lying above One 
Hundred and Tenth street. 

Furthermore, the residence area lying between 
Fifty -ninth and One Hundred and Tenth streets in 
New York is not one-seventh of that lying between 
lines of like distance in Kings County. 

To attempt a close estimate of the future popu- 
lation of New York and Brooklyn might be neither 
wise nor profitable. Some conception of the general 
course or character of that development is the most 
that is practicable. All nineteenth century progress 
discloses a tendency to concentration of population. 
In our own country the inhabitants of cities formed 
one-thirtieth of the population in 1790 ; one-eighth 
in 1850 ; and nine-fortieths or half way between 
one-fifth and one-fourth in 1880. In this State a 
full one-half of the population dwelt in cities in 
1880. The proportion now is not less than three- 
fifths, and is rapidly approachiug, if it has not 
already reached, five-eighths. 

The population of the Union since 1820 has in- 
creased at a rate varying by decades from over 35 
per cent, to 22.65 per cent. The lowest rate was 
that of the war decade. The rate per decade since 
1870 has been more than 30 per cent. The popula- 
tion of the cities of New York and Brooklyn has at 



li 

all times increased more rapidly than tliat of the 
nation. This was true even during the war decade, 
although the marked falling off of their rate of 
growth in that decade disclosed a decided sensitive- 
ness to whatever influences accelerated or retarded 
national growth. New York and Brooklyn, indeed, 
have at all times shown by their rate and character 
of progress and growth that they are reflections of 
the development of the nation rather than of that 
of any State or locality. We may, therefore, safely 
say that the growth of the united population of New 
York and Brooklyn hereafter, as in the past, will 
depend chiefly upon the general progress of the 
whole nation. How rapid this progress will con- 
tinue, how great proportions it ma}^ finally attain 
can only be vaguely conjectured. Lincoln's fore- 
cast of two hundred and fifty millions of souls dur- 
ing the life time of people who were in existence in 
18G1, would seem to have been over-sanguine, 
although it was not without parallel or prece- 
dent. The decade between 1850 and 1860, 
at the close of which he was speaking, had 
witnessed a most rapid national growth, that 
is, a rate of more than thirty-five per cent, for 
the whole Union. Percentages decline as aggre- 
gates increase. The rate of tliii ty ]ier cent, which 
has prevailed since 1870, would not produce two 
hundred and fift}^ millions (250,000,000) of people 
until after 1910. It is too much to assume that 
such a rate of national growth will continue. Its 
continuance for so loug a period would involve 



15 

an increase of over forty millions (40,000,000) be- 
tween 1920 and 1930, and over fifty-five millions 
(55,000,000) between 1930 and 1940. It seems 
more reasonable to expect a gradual decline in the 
rate of increase, and that the relation between 
this country and Europe will more closely approach 
an equilibrium, accompanied or followed by a 
diminution of the force of immigration as a factor 
•in our national growth. Immigration in the past has 
fluctuated widely. The total number of immi- 
grants landing in this country for the whole decade 
closing in 1880, was less than that for the first five 
years of the present decade. To what degree the 
population of the future will dwell in cities can per- 
haps best be foretold by present indications in our 
own land, or by the conditions prevailing in more 
thickl}' settled nations. Present indications here, 
as has been pointed out, suggest a city growth more 
rapid than that of the remainder of the population. 
Among the older nations, the population of the 
British Isles may be said to resemble our own most 
closely. The population of Great Britain and Ire- 
land in 1881 was thirty-five millions (35,000,000). 
More than one-tenth of this population was con- 
tained in London alone. Such an urban population 
manifestly sustains itself largely if not chiefly upon 
the commercial and maritime importance of the 
nation containing it, and only to a minor degree 
upon the community surrounding it. This con- 
dition of existence may never be as emphatically 



16 

true of the population about the port of New York 
as it is of the population of London, yet it 
has always been believed that the final commercial 
position of our nation must be one of commanding 
importance. That belief compels the inference that 
the great port of the nation and of the continent 
must continue to attract an enormous population. 
That the present rate of growth, which adds 30 per. 
cent, to the population of New York, and more 
than 40 per cent, to that of Brooklyn, in every ten 
years, will endure, need not be expected. The re- 
sults of a computation upon such a basis seem 
incredible, since they call for a population of three 
million five hundred thousand (3',500,000) in New 
York in 1920, and of two million two hundred 
thousand (2,200,000) in Brooklyn at the same time. 
But we may well believe that in the nation there will 
be a gradual approach to the density of pop- 
ulation now maintained in older countries; 
that this port will hold its place as a general 
point of concentration and distribution for the na- 
tion, the continent, perhaps for the world; and that 
the excess of residence area in and about our own 
city over the corresponding area of New York must 
continue to tell in our favor, probably with increas- 
ing force. 

Looking back no further than 1850, and com- 
paring the two cities with each other, the following 
table shows their numbers and rate of growth in 
the successive decades : 



17 



Years. 


Population 

of 
New York. 


Increase 
per cent. 


Population 

of 
Brooklyn. 


Increase 
per cent. 


1850 
1860 

1870 
1880 


515,547 

805,651 

942,292 

1,206,299 


56.2 
16.9 

28.0 


96,838 
266,661 
396,099 
566,663 


175.3 

48.5 
43.0 



As the present Twenty-sixth Ward of Brooklyn 
was not a part of the citj' in 1880, a comparison of 
the population of Brooklyn, as the city is now con- 
stituted, with the population of the City of New 
York would be as follows : 

The figures for 1888 for both cities are estimated 
on the basis already stated. 



Year. 


New York. 


Increase 
per cent. 


Brooklyn. 


Increase 
per cent. 


1880 

1888 


1,206,299 
1,585,529 


23.9 
3 pr. cent, 
per year. 


580,318 
782,221 






379,230 


201,903 


34.7 

4.3 pr. ct. 

per year. 



The records of the Building Department aid in 
testing the estimates already submitted, and more 
strikingly in disclosing the character of the popula- 
tion now coming to us. During the twelve months 
ending on November 30 of this year, 4,226 permits 
were granted for buildings of all varieties, estimated 
by their projectors to cost $22,377,825. The esti- 



18 

mated value of this proposed construction has not 
been exceeded duriug any similar period in the 
City's history. The buildings of a residence descrip- 
tion were to fui-nish accommodation for 10,457 fami- 
lies. Not every building for which a permit is 
issued is afterwards completed, but the magnitude 
of the volume of the business of this department — 
even after making all reasonable deductions for the 
plans not carried out — at least justifies all that has 
been said thus far concerning the City's present pro- 
portions aud rate of progress. The United States cen- 
sus of 1880 declared the City's population of 566,063 
to be contained in 115,076 families ; thus fixing the 
average membership of each family at 4.92. It is 
hardly credible therefore that the permits issued for 
residence purposes duriug the past year represent 
the City's actual growth during any given period of 
twelve months. If families now average as then, 
these permits would furnish homes for more than 
51,000 souls — a number, to my mind, in excess of 
the City's yearly growth. We must, therefore, assume 
that there is some discrepancy between the methods 
of designation employed in 1880 by the United 
States officials and those of the building depart- 
ment, or that the average number of persons in 
each famil}' is now less than in 1880, or that these 
permits represent more than the actual needs of the 
period during which they were granted. Probably 
the last supposition is best founded. Like New 
York, the City may have been overbuilt during the 
p st two or three years, and this record, no doubt. 



19 

exhibits some permits not acted upon and some con- 
struction due to the impetus of tlie speculative 
ardor of 1885, 1886, and 1887. This view is con- 
firmed by tlie statement of the number and cost of 
the buildings actually completed during the calen- 
dar years 1886 and 1887, and the first eleven months 
of the present year. 

Year. No. of Buildings. Estimated Cost. 

1886. 3,990. ^ $20,318,485. 

1887. 3,875. 18,008,325. 
1888 to Dec. 1. 3,155. 15,711,070. 

While these figures, together with the record 
of the twelve months ending upon November 30, 
1888, as already given, can not, from their nature, 
lead to a precise mathematical conclusion, they in- 
dicate most clearly a degree of activity in construc- 
tion in which a slight decline in rapidity might be 
a cause for congratulation rather than for regret. 
The substantial prosperity of the City was at one 
time threatened b}^ the over-speculative temper of 
builders. Conservative witnesses now think that 
the normal relation of supply and demand has been 
partially restored. The interests of labor are di- 
rectly concerned to avoid premature and forced 
development in so important an industry. Those 
who lend upon real estate security, and all who de- 
posit in savings banks which make such loans, are 
not less concerned that our growth should represent 
the response to actual demand, and not inconsider- 
ate and headlong enterprise. 



20 

Further analysis of the permits issued during the 
twelve months ending November 30, 1888, is of in- 
terest. 

Of the 10,457 families for whose accommodation 
residence permits were issued, nineteen were to 
live in factories, stables, shops, or business offices, 
three thousand six hundred and seventy-two 
(3,672), were to live in 1,011 flats, to be erected at the 
estimated cost of $4,903,513. The average invest- 
ment of capital to furnish a home for each of these 
families would seem to be $1,338, 'plus the cost of 
the land. 2,456 families were to live in 713 build- 
ings described as flats and stores, to be erected at a 
cost of $4,303,784, calling for an average investment 
for each family of $1,752 less the cost of the store, 
^lus the cost of land. It may be safely stated that 
the distinction between these two variety of resi- 
dences is in general not great. If, therefore, we call 
the average cost of the flat the same in each case, 
$1,338, plus the cost of the land, we shall not be 
far wrong. Neither do we err much if the value of 
the land is estimated to be one-third that of the 
building. It would thus appear that 6,128 families 
were to be given homes representing on the average 
an investment of $1,784. The owner of such prop- 
erty would probably demand $175 per year average 
rental, and since rent may be reckoned as forming 
oiie-fourth of the cost of living with these families, 
it would follow that the 6,128 families now under 
consideration should possess an average income of 
$650 or $700. This body of inhabitants forms a 



21 

full six-tenths of the growth of the City as the 
builders anticipated it. 

The next most important element in that growth 
consists of (3,055) three thousand and fifty-five fami- 
lies who are to occupy 505 tenements, to be construct- 
ed at a cost of $2,629,026, the average investment to 
provide a home for each family in this case being 
$806, "plus the cost of the land. Allow one-third as 
before to this latter item, and the cost of each home 
becomes $1,075. Assume $120 to be the average 
rent asked for such dwelling places, and it would 
appear that these 3,055 families do not command 
an average income in excess of $450. These fami- 
lies form three-tenths of the City's growth for a 
year as foreseen by its builders. Thus, nine-tenths 
of the expected increase has been classified with a 
reasonable approximation to accuracy. The averages 
thus far submitted are not likely to be seriously 
misleading,since they represent varieties of construc- 
tion and modes of life in which a uniform type is 
closely followed. Among those inhabitants compos- 
ing the remaining tenth, incomes cover a wider 
range, but a comprehensive view even of these is by 
no means unprofitable. For 1,168 families the same 
number of private dwellings were built, costing 
$4,660,388, the average cost of each dwelling being 
$4,000. In order that these averages might not be 
misleading, the Commissioner of Buildings has, at 
my request, examined every permit issued by him 
during the year, and has arranged them upon cer- 
tain suggestive bases of classification. This last 



22 

group of 1,168 families includes no permits for 
private dwellings whose construction cost over 
$10,000. The average cost of dwellings costing 
less than $10,000 each, occupied by one family is, 
therefore, $4,000. While this f7gure represents the 
average cost of dwellings of this class, it would ap- 
pear that the actual cost of the greater number of 
these dwellings was considerably less than the aver- 
age. Otherwise the average would not have been 
drawn to a point so far below the maximum cost of 
$10,000. These 1,168 families may be safely 
assumed to stand upon lots worth one-third of their 
cost. Thus, these 1,168 dwellings are to dwell in 
homes representing an average investment of 
$5,333. Upon the basis of computation before 
employed the income of these families should aver- 
age not far from $2,000 per year. In fact, for rea- 
sons just suggested, these incomes range from a 
minimum of $1,000 or less to a maximum rarely 
exceeding $5,000 or $6,000. And a greater num- 
ber of these incomes undoubtedly falls below the 
average point of $2,000. Perhaps the greater num- 
ber would be found to be not far from $1,500. 

There remain 87 families, for whom 87 private 
dwellings, each costing $10,000 or more, as esti- 
mated, were to be constructed. The aggregate 
value of these dwellings is $1,135,500. The aver- 
age value is $13,000. Since the average rises 
so slightly above the minimum, it is clear that 
but few dwellings costing much more than $10,000 
were to be constructed. The detailed report of 



23 

the Commissioner mentions but three residences of 
high cost to be built respectively for $35,000, $10,- 
000 and $50,000. These 87 families represent an 
average investment for both the land and the house 
of $17,333. An attempt to average the income of 
this class would be attended with less success than 
in any of the prior instances. The minimum cost of 
living for ^ family dwelling in one of these resi- 
dences would not be far from $6,000. Doubtless 
but a few of them spend as small a sum as this in 
a year. 

The surmise that in some of its features 
building has been overdone is apparently veri- 
fied by a study of the remaining peritnits. The 
63 factories costing $579,580, and the 15S shops 
costing $121,445 call for so small a part of such a 
population as would be contained in the fl;its and 
tenements to be constructed, that we must believe 
that some of these latter will not be occupied at 
once. 'Jhis conclusion accords with observation. 
At the same time the general magnitude of this sort 
of construction indicates the operation of those 
causes already spoken of which embarrass the 
growth of New York and promote the growth of 
Brooklyn. Manifestly the tenents of these numer- 
ous flats and the 1,168 families who are to dwell in 
the more modest residences belonging in part at 
least to the class which will not live in lower New 
York and which cannot endure the journey to the 
region above One Hundred and Tenth street. 

For the twelve months ending November 30thv 



24 

1887, permits were issued for 4,246 buildings, to 
cost $19,983,414. Among these are found dwell- 
ings for 9,585 families. Of tliese families, 2,856 are 
to dwell in 922 flats costing $8,978,592, the average 
investment for each family being $1,390 as against 
$1,338 in 1888. Two thousand eight hundred and 
sixty- eight families are to dwell in buildings de- 
scribed as stores and flats, numbering 714, and cost- 
ing $4,838,938, the average investment for each 
family being $1,691 as against $1,752 in 1888- 
Two thousand three hundred and ninety-one fami- 
lies are to dwell in 377 tenements costing $1,879,- 
001, the average investment for a family being 
$785 as against $806 in 1884. There remain 
1,372 families who are to dwell in the same 
number of dwellings, each costing less than $10,000, 
and the aggregate cost being $5,320,607, the 
average cost per family being $3,877, as against 
$4,000 in 1888. Finally, there are 97 families pro- 
vided for by the same number of residences, each 
costing over $10,000, and costing in the aggregate 
$1,197,400, or on the average $12,344 as against 
$13,000 in 1888. 

It will be noted that a general survey of these 
twelve months is decidedly like that for the twelve 
months ending upon November 30th, 1888. 

Since December 1, 1886, therefore, permits have 
been issued for the accommodation of 20,042 fami- 
lies The conclusion hinted at early in this message 
that present rate of growth of this city is in ex- 



25 

cess of 25,000 per year is more than supported by 
these figures. 

The conclusions thus arrived at as to the present 
and future of Brooklyn are reinforced by observa- 
tion of the life of the people as it ebbs and flows 
about us. Closer union with New York has — to 
put it paradoxically — removed us further from New 
York. The increased population, whose growth is 
undoubtedly stimulated by improved transit, con- 
sumes such a volume of home supplies that our 
local business has vastly augmented aud varied. 
The tendency to visit New York for every sort of 
purpose declines. Closer alliance with New York 
means a more discriminating alliance and less gener- 
al indiscriminate dependence on that city. This must 
ever be the rule of growth in great communities. 
It is the rule of national growth. Of the products 
of the West some must be shipped in undiminished 
bulk, but even these are so handled that a small 
room in New York suffices to accommodate enough 
buyers and sellers to dispose in one day of a year's 
crop. Other forms of product reach the East for 
consumption or export in a concentrated form. By 
the natural law of growth the process of concentra- 
tion is constantly moving Westward in its place of 
performance to intercept the raw material at a 
point as near as possible to that of its production. 
Similar laws apply to New York and Brooklyn 
with unusual intensity. Obviously New York 
must be the clearing house and the site of the finer 
and^more costly grades of industry. That it can- 



26 

not be the abode of large industrial activity de- 
manding bulk or space is not less clear. Manu- 
facturers who are to occupy much of the earth's 
surface, or whose products are bulky, must estab- 
lish themselves elsewhere. Some of them must 
and will come to Brooklyn, and the population 
growing up about them will hereafter depend less 
and less upon New York for any except the finer 
bonds of relation which unify the diverse purposes 
and interests clustering around our majestic bay. 

It has seemed best to dwell upon this topic of 
the City's present magnitude and general condition. 
Such a study of the people can hardl}^ fail to en- 
lighten those who conduct their aflairs, or to arouse 
and stimulate a collective and aggressive public 
spirit, and a sentiment of just local pride, such as 
become a great community. Few revelations of 
the future are as clear as that the commanding, if 
not the overwhelming problems of politics, are to 
spring hereafter from such communities. The ne- 
cessities of compact and highly-organized bodies of 
people ; the vast private enterprises, as well as pub- 
lic works, which must minister to their daily wants ; 
the stress of industrial competition among them ; 
the pressure of class upon class ; the jarring of in- 
terest iipon interest ; the demand for comprehen- 
sive, honest and far-sighted administration of their 
public affairs ; the absolute need to maintain order 
upon its established foundations ; the fierce conten- 
tions and uneasy vitality which accompany hasty or 
irregular municipal growth ; these and other fea- 



27 

tures of city life, suggests much food for tliought for 
the present and approaching generation of Ameri- 
cans. Since cities are to be so great a factor a& 
well as so great a product in our material expansion, 
it follows that the government of cities is the one 
quarter of the political field in which American insti- 
tutions must not fail ; for if popular self-government 
fails there it fails at the heart, at the centre and source 
of vital and nervous power. In cities, therefore, are 
to be met those trials whose issue will determine in 
what characters the later pages of American history 
are to be inscribed. To designate great cities as an 
evil, or as a peril, is to note but half their signifi- 
cance. If men, when massed together, are acces- 
sible to evil suggestions they are likewise acces- 
sible to that which is good. At all events, the 
problem is not obscure or hard to find. One might 
go farther and say that in the question of the future 
of our cities is involved more even than the destiny 
of popular self-goverument. It involves the success 
or the failure of all the agencies of progress and 
of enlightenment. The moral and spiritual inter- 
ests of the people cannot be separated from those 
which fall within the scope of governmental influ- 
ence. Moreover, these great populations will not 
remain at rest either materially or otherwise. Their 
condition will be one of advancement or of pro- 
gressive demoralization and decay. 

In its practical suggestions such information as 
is given by these statistics is of much value. In 
earlier daj's the forecasts of coming greatness were 



28 



not and could not be accompanied by material pro- 
vision for the future. Tbey formed no basis for 
definite concrete policy. To-day the situation is 
changed. The vision of an aproaching multitude 
casts before it the shadow of responsibility. Their 
well-being must be made secure. Nor is this obli- 
gation remote or of little present moment. Already 
our numbers and rank place us among the great, 
advanced and interesting communities of the civ- 
ilized world. On the continent of Europe there 
can be found but six citifes more populous than 
our own. The British Isles contain but one. 
Our place is surpassed only by that of the capitals 
of the great powers. What is done now, therefore, 
by way of provision for the Brooklyn of to-day as 
well as for the Brooklyn of the future, should be 
done in a manner befitting the character and needs 
of a numerous, permanent and expanding popula- 
tion. Heretefore the public works not less than 
the private enterprises of our countrymen have 
often been experimental and insufficient. Even 
those who dimly foresaw the magnitude of the 
future dared not prepare for all that seemed to 
them probable. Hence the varieties of effort to 
supply the people have usuallyrproved inadequate. 
Demand has speedily overtaken the new methods 
of supply. There is more than one reason why 
this has been true. Not infrequently the 
means with which to make adequate 
provision did not exist. Often the drift 
of population or the general desire for some 



29 

new product or convenience has set all pre- 
vious calculations at defiance. In public matters 
the necessity of submitting Harge propositions to 
minds not familiar with them has operated to the 
public disadvantage. Such a project as the Erie 
Canal or the Brooklyn Bridge is denounced for 
years as wild and extravagant. When completed, 
its capacity may almost at once be taxed to the 
utmost. It is now time to recognize that cities like 
ours are to be the homes of multitudes for succes- 
sive generations — that the battle of civilization, of 
progress and of all that gilds the future with the 
light of hope must be fought out on this field. 
Here must be established the broad and sure 
foundations of systematic provision for those 
vital daily needs upon whose gratification 
depend comfort, health, contentment and peace 
of mind. 

Neither is there now the excuse that resources 
are not at hand. Our credit is second to that of no 
existing community ; the labor of those dwelling 
among us is not to be surpassed in intelligent and 
conscientious effectiveness ; our frugality has pro- 
duced at least one good result, for the cost of gov- 
ernment to the citizen is less than in almost any 
other city. Comprehensive effort and manly de- 
termination alone are needed to begin the task of 
supplying Brooklyn with what is due to the city and 
its visible future. This task does not immediately 
involve any gigantic project. Extraordinary outlay, 
such as attended the establishment of the Park and 



30 

the construction of the Bridge, need not at once be 
contemplated. Doubtless other bridges will some 
day be built — and that day may be nearer than 
some imagine — but I speak now only of such gen- 
eral forms of improvement as are necessary to the 
prosperity of the whole city. In a previous mes- 
sage I have outlined one such proposition to your 
honorable body. In other communications I shall 
complete the list. 

Respectfully, 

ALFRED C. CHAPIN, 

Mayor. 



